The silver lining of nativism is that they are very incompetent at whatever they do. Instead of wasting time on this fee drama, the admin could have worked with Congress to cancel the entire H1B program or even pause it for few years. It could have been both a political win and a good A/B test if the visa matters at all. Now this new fee will get challenged and eventually be blocked by courts.
In 2020 US issued 25K L1 visas and in 2025 it issued 35K L1 visas.
In 2020 US issued 20K O1 visas and in 2025 it issued 30K O1 visas.
You see this additional 20K growth. As H1B visa becomes expensive and uncertain, O1 and L1 becomes more viable alternatives. By end of Trump's term the H1B pipeline will be full but more organizations would figure out the O1 and L1 pipelines as well.
O1 and L1 do not have caps. It can bring in 100K folks per year in few years. L1 would also require companies to start an Indian subsidiary and hire some folks there too (which is cheap and easy).
End result would be what Trump admin is explicitly trying to avoid. More Indians in USA !
You can call it whatever you want. I’ll call it pricing something that wasn’t priced previously. For forty years, H-1B has allowed corporations to trade a life in America for a below-market wage. The fee simply puts a price on something that was previously free.
The silver lining of nativism is that they are very incompetent at whatever they do. Instead of wasting time on this fee drama, the admin could have worked with Congress to cancel the entire H1B program or even pause it for few years. It could have been both a political win and a good A/B test if the visa matters at all. Now this new fee will get challenged and eventually be blocked by courts.
In 2020 US issued 25K L1 visas and in 2025 it issued 35K L1 visas.
In 2020 US issued 20K O1 visas and in 2025 it issued 30K O1 visas.
You see this additional 20K growth. As H1B visa becomes expensive and uncertain, O1 and L1 becomes more viable alternatives. By end of Trump's term the H1B pipeline will be full but more organizations would figure out the O1 and L1 pipelines as well.
O1 and L1 do not have caps. It can bring in 100K folks per year in few years. L1 would also require companies to start an Indian subsidiary and hire some folks there too (which is cheap and easy).
End result would be what Trump admin is explicitly trying to avoid. More Indians in USA !
Innovation you say? Of course the biggest innovation of the past 20 years came from a young American.
https://pulpitfortruth.substack.com/p/the-case-against-h-1b-the-innovation
You can call it whatever you want. I’ll call it pricing something that wasn’t priced previously. For forty years, H-1B has allowed corporations to trade a life in America for a below-market wage. The fee simply puts a price on something that was previously free.
https://pulpitfortruth.substack.com/p/the-case-against-h1b-spindletop
And if you want to argue that this wasn’t the trade, check your history.
https://pulpitfortruth.substack.com/p/the-case-against-h-1b-the-shortage?r=2kc5k&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Rare Trump W