Another superb analysis and and another lost conclusion.
Dude, you fail to differentiate between (1) a reasonable volume of immigrants and (2) a flood. The flood in Denver is 60,000 against a population of 600,000. And another 60,000 are expected in the next 5 months. In two more years we will add perhaps another 120,000. How is it possible to finance the massive burden on needed infrastructure? Think "Flood" - what comes to mind these days - Oh, maybe North Carolina.
Not only are all the low rent properties full and rents rising, hospitals are going bankrupt. Further other costs are up, for example milk and cheese. The food supply does not automatically increase, for example, the dairy farmers did not add 10% more cows. The cities budget is cratered and essential services are being cut. The parks did not plant flowers this year.
You seem to think a rise is house prices is not problematic, but forget that a flood of immigrants has many effects on rising costs - schools, social services, crime, prostitution, children in the sex trade etc.
Remember - many people say these immigrants pay taxes - not true at the low income levels they are at. Not true for the children sold into the sex trade. So, the rest of us pay. If immigration to Denver was 2000 to 10,000 people a year - no problem - but 60,000. A disaster.
And it is worse - the suffering these immigrants receive is horrifying. Gangs prey on them and the border crossing is a bitch. Look no further than here to understand what I am saying: https://x.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1840423630682935752
The horrifying journey and abuse (And sale) of children as part of this massive flood if immigrants is one of the worse human rights violations I have seen - and I have been to war zones.
Go back to your computer and re-evaluate the whole picture. Figure out what is really going on. Get the silly housing numbers out of you brain and evaluate the TOTAL effect on the societal structure - schools, food, hospitals, transportation, crime and yes, housing.
I believe in managed and proper immigration, but the people paying you to analyze and publish this spin have something else in mind and it is not good. They want the pro-immigrant story out, but they do not give darn about the suffering or cost.
How is your conscience these days? How many pieces of silver are you willing to take to support this horror and suffering from the pro-immigration narrative?
Alex, I think this analysis is kind of wrong, because it doesn't incorporate the all-important distinction between *average* housing prices and *marginal* housing prices. See my post at Open Borders:
In a nutshell, theory predicts that immigration should raise the price of *land* (b/c more demand, inelastic supply) but reduce the price of *structures* (b/c cheap labor). A given home price conflates the two, so the impact is ambiguous, as the somewhat muddled empirical literature reflects. But theory clearly predicts that (a) there should be a big land value windfall for homeowners, and also (b) homebuyers should be able to get more value for money in terms of structure plus access to jobs and shopping.
I think you’re being overly generous to Vance’s argument:
1) Vance claimed 25 million illegal immigrants, which is roughly double the actual number. This is part of his general exaggeration of the impact of immigration on housing prices.
2) Agree that immigrants can have a large impact on specific housing markets if they choose to move there, but there’s not really any way to action that. 10k Haitian migrants have basically no impact on the aggregate US housing market. Without a hukuo system, there’s no way to prevent people from moving in the US and raising demand for specific markets. Very similar to Western states complaining about people moving out of California and raising prices.
3. In 2024 the run rate of apprehensions is 220,000 a month - about 2.2 millloon in 2024.
This totals 17.6 million - not counting a) the flights from Mexico b) the migrant trains to Checkpoints and c) those not apprehended at the checkpoints.
Further, those coming in on flights and overstaying visas are a large numbers and I have no idea how many approach the legal checkpoints.
So, it is 1/2 of 25 million as you surmise (12.5 million) - nope. Could it be 20 million - easily. 25 million - possibly.
They have the means. They are getting cash, food, stamps, section 8.
My parents are elderly and waited a very long time for housing. They had their name in for five years before they were picked.
Then suddenly they said they were gonna put immigrants in that building. Now, instead of my elderly parents being able to live in that same building with my uncle Uncle they put in families of immigrants and it’s very upsetting because children are not supposed to be there with elderly people.
Now my parents can’t get in and there are children running in the hallways where are elderly sick? People are trying to live out the rest of their lives.
You know how many years my parents paid taxes ?!! And to get the shaft and have to pay 3000 a month for their apartment because they can’t get in to the elderly housing?! it takes both of their Social Security check just for housing.
It’s sickening so I don’t care what the hell you say !!!
They literally got rid of half of their stuff because that’s how close they were to Moving. It’s horrible that that happened to American citizens who have family who have been paying taxes for generations.!!!! Generations!!
Immigrant workers cannot afford the housing in many American cities, either, so I struggle to comprehend how they can drive prices up on housing they don’t occupy because they do not earn enough to pay those rents or make those purchases. Plus, if they are not naturalized citizens, they have barriers to passing credit and background checks by most landlords, and to completing mortgage applications with no social security number.
Where I live, in the Pacific Northwest, the housing shortage is caused by a combination of a lack of higher density housing in urban areas, an increased demand from many Americans (mostly white people) moving to the PacNW over the last 10 years, and a slowing of construction and development compounded by urban growth boundary and other policies. One other cause: When the mortgage crisis happened around 2008 and the Great Recession, unemployment was above 14% here. Many defaulted on their mortgages and were evicted. Guess who bought all those foreclosures- the wealthy, and financial institutions, foreign investors, etc., not local working Americans. In addition, during the recent period when the data shown in this thread indicates illegal crossings peaked, Oregon and Washington housing markets cooled. Prices came back down, interest rates went up only slightly, and construction has gone way, way up; higher density building is filling empty lots and scraping off single dwellings to replace them with four unit apartment and condo living. Transit development has expanded and rent inflation has slowed. All this happened while wages were going up fast. I don’t know about states at the southern border, but there is more to the US housing shortage and affordability issue than can be explained by millions of immigrant refugees in abject poverty suddenly coming up with the means to rent or buy the existing housing at historically very high rents and prices.
They have the means. They are getting cash, food, stamps, section 8.
My parents are elderly and waited a very long time for housing. They had their name in for five years before they were picked.
Then suddenly they said they were gonna put immigrants in that building. Now, instead of my elderly parents being able to live in that same building with my uncle Uncle they put in families of immigrants and it’s very upsetting because children are not supposed to be there with elderly people.
Now my parents can’t get in and there are children running in the hallways where are elderly sick? People are trying to live out the rest of their lives.
You know how many years my parents paid taxes ?!! And to get the shaft and have to pay 3000 a month for their apartment because they can’t get in to the elderly housing?! it takes both of their Social Security check just for housing.
It’s second I don’t care what the hell you say !!!
They have the means. They are getting cash, food, stamps, section 8.
My parents are elderly and waited a very long time for housing. They had their name in for five years before they were picked.
Then suddenly they said they were gonna put immigrants in that building. Now, instead of my elderly parents being able to live in that same building with my uncle Uncle they put in families of immigrants and it’s very upsetting because children are not supposed to be there with elderly people.
Now my parents can’t get in and there are children running in the hallways where are elderly sick? People are trying to live out the rest of their lives.
You know how many years my parents paid taxes ?!! And to get the shaft and have to pay 3000 a month for their apartment because they can’t get in to the elderly housing?! it takes both of their Social Security check just for housing.
It’s sick so I don’t care what the hell you say !!!
Another superb analysis and and another lost conclusion.
Dude, you fail to differentiate between (1) a reasonable volume of immigrants and (2) a flood. The flood in Denver is 60,000 against a population of 600,000. And another 60,000 are expected in the next 5 months. In two more years we will add perhaps another 120,000. How is it possible to finance the massive burden on needed infrastructure? Think "Flood" - what comes to mind these days - Oh, maybe North Carolina.
Not only are all the low rent properties full and rents rising, hospitals are going bankrupt. Further other costs are up, for example milk and cheese. The food supply does not automatically increase, for example, the dairy farmers did not add 10% more cows. The cities budget is cratered and essential services are being cut. The parks did not plant flowers this year.
You seem to think a rise is house prices is not problematic, but forget that a flood of immigrants has many effects on rising costs - schools, social services, crime, prostitution, children in the sex trade etc.
Remember - many people say these immigrants pay taxes - not true at the low income levels they are at. Not true for the children sold into the sex trade. So, the rest of us pay. If immigration to Denver was 2000 to 10,000 people a year - no problem - but 60,000. A disaster.
And it is worse - the suffering these immigrants receive is horrifying. Gangs prey on them and the border crossing is a bitch. Look no further than here to understand what I am saying: https://x.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1840423630682935752
The horrifying journey and abuse (And sale) of children as part of this massive flood if immigrants is one of the worse human rights violations I have seen - and I have been to war zones.
Go back to your computer and re-evaluate the whole picture. Figure out what is really going on. Get the silly housing numbers out of you brain and evaluate the TOTAL effect on the societal structure - schools, food, hospitals, transportation, crime and yes, housing.
I believe in managed and proper immigration, but the people paying you to analyze and publish this spin have something else in mind and it is not good. They want the pro-immigrant story out, but they do not give darn about the suffering or cost.
How is your conscience these days? How many pieces of silver are you willing to take to support this horror and suffering from the pro-immigration narrative?
Thank you!!!
Alex, I think this analysis is kind of wrong, because it doesn't incorporate the all-important distinction between *average* housing prices and *marginal* housing prices. See my post at Open Borders:
https://openborders.info/blog/the-great-land-value-windfall-from-open-borders/#:~:text=The%20stock%20of%20existing%20housing%20is,%20by%20definition,%20fixed%E2%80%93
In a nutshell, theory predicts that immigration should raise the price of *land* (b/c more demand, inelastic supply) but reduce the price of *structures* (b/c cheap labor). A given home price conflates the two, so the impact is ambiguous, as the somewhat muddled empirical literature reflects. But theory clearly predicts that (a) there should be a big land value windfall for homeowners, and also (b) homebuyers should be able to get more value for money in terms of structure plus access to jobs and shopping.
Win-win.
I think you’re being overly generous to Vance’s argument:
1) Vance claimed 25 million illegal immigrants, which is roughly double the actual number. This is part of his general exaggeration of the impact of immigration on housing prices.
2) Agree that immigrants can have a large impact on specific housing markets if they choose to move there, but there’s not really any way to action that. 10k Haitian migrants have basically no impact on the aggregate US housing market. Without a hukuo system, there’s no way to prevent people from moving in the US and raising demand for specific markets. Very similar to Western states complaining about people moving out of California and raising prices.
I would say in reply - published as of January 1, 2022 there were 11 million. See: https://ohss.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-06/2024_0418_ohss_estimates-of-the-unauthorized-immigrant-population-residing-in-the-united-states-january-2018%25E2%2580%2593january-2022.pdf
2. The NY times published for the balance of 2022 and all of 2023 - not counting checkpoints, illegal crossings were 4.25 million - see: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/10/29/us/illegal-border-crossings-data.html
3. In 2024 the run rate of apprehensions is 220,000 a month - about 2.2 millloon in 2024.
This totals 17.6 million - not counting a) the flights from Mexico b) the migrant trains to Checkpoints and c) those not apprehended at the checkpoints.
Further, those coming in on flights and overstaying visas are a large numbers and I have no idea how many approach the legal checkpoints.
So, it is 1/2 of 25 million as you surmise (12.5 million) - nope. Could it be 20 million - easily. 25 million - possibly.
They have the means. They are getting cash, food, stamps, section 8.
My parents are elderly and waited a very long time for housing. They had their name in for five years before they were picked.
Then suddenly they said they were gonna put immigrants in that building. Now, instead of my elderly parents being able to live in that same building with my uncle Uncle they put in families of immigrants and it’s very upsetting because children are not supposed to be there with elderly people.
Now my parents can’t get in and there are children running in the hallways where are elderly sick? People are trying to live out the rest of their lives.
You know how many years my parents paid taxes ?!! And to get the shaft and have to pay 3000 a month for their apartment because they can’t get in to the elderly housing?! it takes both of their Social Security check just for housing.
It’s sickening so I don’t care what the hell you say !!!
They literally got rid of half of their stuff because that’s how close they were to Moving. It’s horrible that that happened to American citizens who have family who have been paying taxes for generations.!!!! Generations!!
Immigrant workers cannot afford the housing in many American cities, either, so I struggle to comprehend how they can drive prices up on housing they don’t occupy because they do not earn enough to pay those rents or make those purchases. Plus, if they are not naturalized citizens, they have barriers to passing credit and background checks by most landlords, and to completing mortgage applications with no social security number.
Where I live, in the Pacific Northwest, the housing shortage is caused by a combination of a lack of higher density housing in urban areas, an increased demand from many Americans (mostly white people) moving to the PacNW over the last 10 years, and a slowing of construction and development compounded by urban growth boundary and other policies. One other cause: When the mortgage crisis happened around 2008 and the Great Recession, unemployment was above 14% here. Many defaulted on their mortgages and were evicted. Guess who bought all those foreclosures- the wealthy, and financial institutions, foreign investors, etc., not local working Americans. In addition, during the recent period when the data shown in this thread indicates illegal crossings peaked, Oregon and Washington housing markets cooled. Prices came back down, interest rates went up only slightly, and construction has gone way, way up; higher density building is filling empty lots and scraping off single dwellings to replace them with four unit apartment and condo living. Transit development has expanded and rent inflation has slowed. All this happened while wages were going up fast. I don’t know about states at the southern border, but there is more to the US housing shortage and affordability issue than can be explained by millions of immigrant refugees in abject poverty suddenly coming up with the means to rent or buy the existing housing at historically very high rents and prices.
They have the means. They are getting cash, food, stamps, section 8.
My parents are elderly and waited a very long time for housing. They had their name in for five years before they were picked.
Then suddenly they said they were gonna put immigrants in that building. Now, instead of my elderly parents being able to live in that same building with my uncle Uncle they put in families of immigrants and it’s very upsetting because children are not supposed to be there with elderly people.
Now my parents can’t get in and there are children running in the hallways where are elderly sick? People are trying to live out the rest of their lives.
You know how many years my parents paid taxes ?!! And to get the shaft and have to pay 3000 a month for their apartment because they can’t get in to the elderly housing?! it takes both of their Social Security check just for housing.
It’s second I don’t care what the hell you say !!!
From "they took our jobs" to "they took our houses"
They have the means. They are getting cash, food, stamps, section 8.
My parents are elderly and waited a very long time for housing. They had their name in for five years before they were picked.
Then suddenly they said they were gonna put immigrants in that building. Now, instead of my elderly parents being able to live in that same building with my uncle Uncle they put in families of immigrants and it’s very upsetting because children are not supposed to be there with elderly people.
Now my parents can’t get in and there are children running in the hallways where are elderly sick? People are trying to live out the rest of their lives.
You know how many years my parents paid taxes ?!! And to get the shaft and have to pay 3000 a month for their apartment because they can’t get in to the elderly housing?! it takes both of their Social Security check just for housing.
It’s sick so I don’t care what the hell you say !!!
I feel you, but whose fault is that? The governments or politicians? Or immigrants?