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Yuri Bezmenov's avatar

Illegal immigrants have already broken the law by entering the country. Perhaps you should spend a few nights at the roosevelt hotel in nyc, which has been taken over by military aged men milking our tax dollars. I’m sure they will all pay taxes as future doctors and lawyers: https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/illegal-immigration-guide-usa-open-borders

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Long Term View's avatar

https://twitter.com/CWBChicago/status/1759587139438686551

Need I say more? This is what you get when the majority of the mass immigration is young single men.

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Long Term View's avatar

I have a very good education and am a professional engineer, hold a masters degree and a doctorate. Please do call me a random internet person as this mislabels me. There are many good people in the world, and I grew up in a very dangerous part of LA. After university I quickly learned the Asian, Indian, Iranian, and Caucasian neighborhoods of LA were very safe, and I moved to a primarily asian neighborhood. The blanket statement that immigrants have less crime is stupid if you do not parse the immigrants. As an example, immigrants from Poland to Chicago - very safe. Little Haiti in Miami - https://www.areavibes.com/miami-fl/little+haiti/crime/#google_vignette - a 33% higher crime rate than the rest of Miami. As in my prior post, areas of the USA - think Lincoln Nebraska - very safe. Today, we know the immigrant mix is horrible. Look no further than https://www.fairus.org/blog/2023/12/01/sanctuary-city-chicago-sees-11000-increase-arrests-venezuelans-border-crisis-began - and 11,000 % increase in crime from the type of Venezuelans coming in. Bottom line - it depends on where they come from. Right now it is primarily young draft age men coming with no skills to seek their fortune. See: this DOJ study: https://ojjdp.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/xyckuh176/files/jjbulletin/9810_1/gang2.html

Most of the cities involved in the survey (86 percent) reported that migrant gang members contributed to an increase in local crime rates or patterns primarily in theft (50-percent increase), robbery (35-percent increase), other violent crimes (59-percent increase), and, to a lesser extent, drug sales (24-percent increase). The small increase in drug sale activity can most likely be attributed to competition from established local drug markets. The survey also showed that the type of criminal gang activity was changing to include increased use of firearms and more sophisticated weapons (36-percent increase). Carjackings, firebombings, residential robberies, drive-by shootings, and advanced techniques for vehicle theft were also cited on occasion.

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Long Term View's avatar

Well - take out the inner cities crime - like the south side of Chicago - and your analysis falls apart. Proper statistical analysis requires segmentation of the data set. In Los Angeles, East LA is very dangerous and by the way, heavily non english speaking. Orange county, on the other hand, is quite safe. To lump it all together may make people that love your message happy, but your analysis rots. Obviously you never took statistics seriously. May I suggest you have a look at the map of Chicago shootings on this website: https://heyjackass.com/2024-homicide-map/ Outside this map, it is quite a safe city.

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Rajat Sirkanungo's avatar

He has training in economics (BA in economics and MSc in economic history) so he probably knows more statistics than a random anonymous internet person like you. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Nowrasteh

I recommend reading his book - ''Wretched Refuse?'' with economist Benjamin Powell. I also recommend reading 'Streets of Gold' by economists Leah Boustan and Ran Abramitzky. Finally, I recommend reading 'Open Borders' by Bryan Caplan.

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Long Term View's avatar

Well, it depends. The article you wrote some time ago on immigrant's likelihood commit homicide is greatly misleading. You wrote: The homicide conviction rate was 3.1 per 100,000 for native‐​born Americans, 2.2 per 100,000 for illegal immigrants, and 1.3 per 100,000 for legal immigrants (Figure 2). However, 59 % arrested for murder in this country are black and the majority are in black neighborhoods. See: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/topic-pages/tables/table-21. So, if we eliminate this outlier, the 3.1 conviction rate per 100,000 for native born Americans drops to 1.2 per 100,000 for the rest of our country. If illegal immigrants are at 2.2 per 100,000, then the murder rate by illegal immigrants is almost double the rest of the country.

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Rajat Sirkanungo's avatar

"if we ignore the crimes of some American citizens who are born in the USA, then illegal immigrants commit more crime!"

What an astute observation, buddy! Also, 2.2 crime rate of illegal immigrants is so low that if just considering that, immigration is obviously good for people (and i am not discounting the wellbeing of anyone) overall.

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Brantly Medders's avatar

Hi Alex. Big fan of your work. I teach AP Human Geography to high school students, and I always bring up your points during Unit 2 - Population and Migration Patterns and Processes. It's thoughtful and easy to grok, even for high school students.

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