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There is a ton here that is interesting and needs a further look, but I saw no mention of several factors that I also thought were important.

(1) The early months and years of Biden border policy were in fact set by judges who blocked some policy and even forced implementation of other policy that Biden wanted to change. Any interesting analysis here?

(2) Messaging over the border quickly and loudly flips over to "open borders" when a Democrat comes to power, from Republican politicians and media. Very hard to say, but this may have a significant effect. Note that the message from the Democratic administration is the opposite and they then have to step up and counter the message blasted from the right, which results in video clips that sometime surprise.

(3) How successful was the root causes initiative?

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<blockquote>Illegal immigration had already increased to a 21-year high by December 2020 before Biden came into office.</blockquote>

That's flat-out NOT true. You can see a chart the NYT put together here. In 2020, Trump had managed to get the problem relatively under control, then irregular migration skyrocketed immediately to the highest rates in our country's history after Biden took office.

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/10/27/multimedia/2023-10-12-ambriefing-border-encounters-index/2023-10-12-ambriefing-border-encounters-index-superJumbo.png

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David is actually playing a little game here. I think what he is saying is that December-only illegal immigration had hit a 21-year high. That is, illegal immigration in December 2020 was higher than any other December, not any other month, in the previous 21 years. Exactly why he thinks December-only is a relevant metric, apart from being able to say the words "21 year high" and thus suggest that the crisis at the border had already begun before Biden took office, is unclear.

As it turns out, in fact border encounters had actually flattened out by October 2020, after monthly increases starting in May following a covid-induced drop in encounters in April by about 50%. There was no significant change in border encounters between October, November, and December of 2020, with each month being roughly 70k, although David would have you believe that they were actually spiking in December. The actual spike came in February 2021, Biden's first full month in office when, after being relatively flat from October thru January (69k, 69k, 71k, 75k), they suddenly jumped to 97k. They jumped again to 169k in March 2021.

Put another way, in Trump's final two full months in office, the month over month increase in border encounters was 0% and 2.9%, while for Biden's first two full months in office it was 29.3% and 74.22%. But to David, this indicates that the spike started under Trump. Go figure.

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There is quite a lot of questionable claims and data in this, and hopefully I will be able to address it all more thoroughly at some point. But one immediate point...

In the bar graph claiming to show "Border Patrol arrests, each December, 1999-2024", where did you get your data, because it does not seem to match custody and transfer statistics published by CBP for the years 2020 thru 2022. Prior to 2020 it seems correct, but not 2020. thru 2022.

Crucial to your point is that in Dec 2020, while Trump was still in office, border apprehensions were already spiking. You said that "The graph below shows the number of Border Patrol arrests for each December back to 1999. Trump left office with the most arrests in 21 years. Arrests under Trump’s watch had already increased 64 percent over the level in December 2016."

The graph shows 71,142 arrests for Dec 2020. But the actual CBP Title 8 apprehension data for December 2020 show it to be multitudes lower, only 10,546.

See this: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/custody-and-transfer-statistics-fy2021

For 2021 your graph shows 170,602 arrests, while CBP data shows 90,760. See https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/custody-and-transfer-statistics-fy22

December 2022 in your graph shows 222,023, but CBP data shows 170,662 (Remarkably close to your 2021 number). See:

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/custody-and-transfer-statistics-fy2023

For 2023, your graph seems to finally come close to matching CBP data, with you showing 249,785, and CBP data showing 250,918.

It almost seems like your numbers are off by a year, ie you are using 2021 data for 2020, and 2022 data for 2021. It isn't clear where your data for 2022 came from.

So where did you get the data you are using for the years 2020-2022?

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Yes, I see. That makes sense since Title 42 came into effect in 2020, and that is where our numbers diverge. And I agree that Title 42 numbers should be included.

But why do you think that looking at December-only numbers is a relevant or interesting metric?

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Media reporting on this issue has been abysmal, leaving the field open for political propaganda. Trump got tens of millions of votes based on lies.

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Ha! So what you're saying is that Biden was a victim of his own success? Interestingly, CATO, made the same argument. It was not Biden's lax migration policy but America's exceptional economy, something they claimed Americans seem to be completely oblivious to or refuse to believe. I read that article last year at which time the article estimated that there were 10 million unfilled jobs due to labour shortage.

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Suggest "supposedly lax migration policy". As I read the article, it wasn't "lax" at all.

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