I have not followed fertility work, but am curious what do you see as the drivers for the crude birth rate drop post-Covid? When I asked Claude and Copilot, they had similar answers and neither mentioned migration, but instead Claude summed it by saying: "The birth rate decline appears to reflect a complex interaction of immediate health concerns, prolonged economic uncertainty, policy disruptions, and shifting social conditions that extended well beyond the acute phase of the pandemic." Copilot mentioned similar reasons including a long-term demographic shift and said: "Interestingly, unemployment didn’t show a strong correlation with birth rates, but inflation did." citing https://academic.oup.com/hropen/article/2024/3/hoae052/7754492. That paper mentioned "We found that birth trends during the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with economic uncertainty, as measured by increased inflation (P < 0.001), whereas unemployment did not show any link to births during the pandemic (P = 0.677)." So it seems prolonged economic uncertainty is a big driver here, not migration flows and certainly not migration flows in the long run.
I have not followed fertility work, but am curious what do you see as the drivers for the crude birth rate drop post-Covid? When I asked Claude and Copilot, they had similar answers and neither mentioned migration, but instead Claude summed it by saying: "The birth rate decline appears to reflect a complex interaction of immediate health concerns, prolonged economic uncertainty, policy disruptions, and shifting social conditions that extended well beyond the acute phase of the pandemic." Copilot mentioned similar reasons including a long-term demographic shift and said: "Interestingly, unemployment didn’t show a strong correlation with birth rates, but inflation did." citing https://academic.oup.com/hropen/article/2024/3/hoae052/7754492. That paper mentioned "We found that birth trends during the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with economic uncertainty, as measured by increased inflation (P < 0.001), whereas unemployment did not show any link to births during the pandemic (P = 0.677)." So it seems prolonged economic uncertainty is a big driver here, not migration flows and certainly not migration flows in the long run.